05 · Ludwig von Mises · Carl Menger

Ludwig von Mises

In 1871 the Viennese economist Carl Menger argued that value lies in people's judgments about the next unit of a good, not in the labor that made it. That founded the Austrian school. Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) built on it. The Theory of Money and Credit (1912) brought money and the business cycle into the theory of value. “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth” (1920) and Socialism (1922) argued that a planned economy can't calculate. His Critique of Interventionism (1929) and his treatise Human Action (1949) tied it together. Below, the farmer really ranks his sacks, the traders really find money, the planner really can't rank his plans, and the new money really reaches some people before others.

Subjective value: the farmer, the parrots and the diamond

menger-subjective-valuemenger-marginal-utilitymises-paradox-of-value
Menger's farmer has a harvest of identical grain sacks and a list of uses, from staying alive down to feeding his parrots. Each sack goes to the most urgent use not yet covered. So what is one sack worth? Exactly as much as the least important use he would have to give up without it. The same logic resolves the old puzzle of why water is cheap and diamonds are dear.

Menger's farmer: one sack per use, ranked by urgency

  1. 1Bread to stay alive
    100
  2. 2Bread to stay alive (rest of winter)
    92
  3. 3Enough food to stay strong and healthy
    75
  4. 4Seed for next year's crop
    60
  5. 5Extra seed to expand the field
    45
  6. 6Brew beer and spirits
    28
  7. 7Fatten livestock
    18
  8. 8Feed the pet parrots
    6

Sacks are interchangeable, so the farmer never sacrifices bread to keep the parrots fed. Losing any sack means giving up the least important use still served.

Value of one sack
28
= least urgent use served
Value of whole harvest
400
sum over uses served
Uses left unmet
2
Next sack would go to
livestock
worth 18

Try: drop to 2 sacks and watch the value of a single sack jump from 6 (parrots) to 92 (survival). Same grain, different margin.

The paradox of value: water vs diamonds, at the margin

05010050100150liters of water already on handvalue of one more unitone more carat of diamond: 42.92.2
Next liter of water
2.2
Next carat of diamond
42.9
Total value of your water
2,119
enormous, but no one trades the total
Which trades dearer?
diamond

Try: slide water down below ~11 liters (stranded in a desert) and a liter becomes worth more than a diamond. Prices follow the marginal unit, not the category.

Time preference: why Crusoe needs savings to build a boat

mises-time-preferencemises-originary-interestmises-roundabout-production
Every action takes time, and people prefer a satisfaction sooner to the same satisfaction later. Mises called this time preference, and the discount it puts on future goods originary interest. Crusoe can fish by hand or first spend days making tools that catch more fish later. Which detour he takes depends on how impatient he is and whether he has saved enough fish to live on while building.

Crusoe's options: catch over one year (cumulative)

Fish by handMake a spearWeave a netBuild a boat + nets
05001k0100200300dayfish caught so far
methoddays buildingfish/day afterstore neededbeats hand if premium <value today
Fish by hand030–644
Make a spear23.2453%652
Weave a net← chosen153.73024%659
Build a boat + nets454.290 ✗10%645
Crusoe chooses
Weave a net
Production detour
15 days
how roundabout the structure is
Fish caught this year
1,110
hand fishing: 1,080
Originary interest
10% / 30 days
the discount on future fish he feels

Try: slide time preference down from 60% to 0% with a big store: the chosen method gets longer (hand → spear → net → boat). Then cut the store below 90 fish: even a patient Crusoe can't build the boat, because he must eat 2 fish a day while catching none. Patience without savings isn't enough.

Under barter the fisherman who wants grain must find a farmer who wants fish. Menger's answer: traders start accepting goods they don't want but can easily pass on. The more often a good is accepted, the more readily the next trader takes it. That feedback loop selects one good as money. Below, 48 traders run the same market twice, once restricted to barter and once with indirect exchange.
show market

48 traders, day 0

fishgrainclothcattlesaltsilver

Ring = what the trader produces · inner dot = good held for re-trade · small dot = what he wants now. Thick ring = just got what he wanted.

How readily each good is accepted when offered (indirect-exchange market)

fishgrainclothcattlesaltsilver
0%50%100%050100150200day
Emerging money
none yet
accepted by >60% of those offered it
Wants met / trader-day
0.00
indirect exchange
…under barter only
0.00
needs a double coincidence
Holding money to re-trade
0 / 48
press play

Try: press Play and watch one good's acceptance pull away from the rest. Nobody decrees it; each trader just takes what he expects to pass on easily. Then hit “New random traders” a few times: it is usually silver (durable, divisible), but sometimes salt wins. Switch to barter only to see the stalled market.

Mises's regression theorem follows the same history backwards. People accept money today because of what it bought yesterday, and yesterday's value rests on the day before's. Followed back far enough, you reach a day when the good (silver, here) was valued only for its own uses. That is why, on Mises's account, money has to start out as a commodity.

Economic calculation: the planner with no prices

mises-economic-calculationmises-capital-goods-prices
Mises's most famous argument. A railway can be built many ways: more steel or more timber, a tunnel or a detour, machines or labor. Each plan is a list of physical quantities, and no plan uses less of everything than all the others. Market prices for the means of production turn each list into one number, its cost, which is also the value of the other goods those inputs could have made. Take those prices away and the lists can't be compared.
capital goods
conditions

Six feasible ways to build the same 100 km railway (click rows to compare two)

planlabor
worker-yrs
$50k
steel
kt
$800k
timber
kt
$400k
cement
kt
$150k
energy
GWh
$120k
machinery
machine-yrs
$300k
money cost
A Concrete sleepers
400
12
1
9
30
60
$53.0M
B Timber sleepers
chosen by profit & loss
420
11
8
2
25
55
$52.8M
C Hand-built, timber
900
11
9
2
10
15
$63.4M
D Tunnel through ridge
330
6
2
14
70
110
$65.6M
E Detour round ridge
520
16
10
3
35
50
$62.5M
F Prefab modules
280
14
1
10
45
85
$58.0M
A vs D: A uses less timber, less cement, less energy, less machinery but more labor, more steel. At today's prices A is cheaper by $12.7M.
Plans dominated on every input
0 / 6
physical data alone can't rank them
Chosen plan
B · Timber sleepers
Waste vs. cheapest plan
none
inputs go where they're least missed

Try: with prices on, switch conditions; the cheapest plan changes each time (B, A, D, F) because prices carry news of new scarcities. Then socialize capital goods and try every planner's rule: none tracks all four.

“Where there is no free market, there is no pricing mechanism; without a pricing mechanism, there is no economic calculation.” Mises, 1920. Oskar Lange answered in the 1930s that a planning board could set accounting prices by trial and error. Mises and Hayek replied that without owners who stand to profit or lose, those prices would carry none of the knowledge market prices do.
Mises's own example. To make milk affordable, the government caps its price. Each control creates a shortage its sponsors didn't intend, and each shortage invites a new control further up the chain of production. At every step the government faces the same choice: add another control or repeal them all.

The spiral, step by step

  1. 0Free market

    No controls. Milk sells at its market price.

    Everyone willing to pay the market price gets milk; there are no queues.

  2. 1Cap the price of milk
  3. 2Cap butter and cheese too
  4. 3Cap the price of feed
  5. 4Direct labor, ration everything

The dairy chain (outline = wanted at the going price, fill = supplied)

farm labor
free price
want 100 · get 100
clears
market wage
cattle feed
free price
want 100 · get 100
clears
market price
dairy herd
free price
want 100 · get 100
clears
herd intact
milk
free price
want 100 · get 100
clears
market price
butter & cheese
free price
want 100 · get 100
clears
market price
Goods under control
0 / 5
Total shortage
0
units wanted but not supplied
Milk buyers turned away
0%
Milk actually supplied
100
vs 100 with no control

Try: step through all four interventions and watch the shortage move upstream, from milk to feed to labor. Then repeal: every shortage vanishes at once. Note that milk supplied ends lower than it was before the first well-meant cap.

The Austrian business cycle: boom on credit, bust on reality

mises-business-cyclemises-natural-ratemises-malinvestment
Interest rates tell entrepreneurs how much saving is available and so how long a project the economy can afford. If people really save more, the rate falls and longer projects can be finished. If instead banks push the rate down with new credit, firms start the same long projects, but the real resources to finish them were never saved. Each quarter here starts a cohort of projects whose number and length depend on the rate.
quarter 0 · market rate 5.00% · natural rate 5.00%

Real resources: investment in progress, consumer goods, idle

consumer goods outputresources in unfinished projectsidle (unemployed) resources
boombust0501000204060quarterold consumption level
natural rate (time preference)market rate
0%2%4%6%0204060quarter
Wasted work (abandoned)
0
resource-quarters sunk in projects never finished
Peak idle resources
0%
Consumption now
100
old steady state = 100

Structure of production, quarter 0

each bar = a cohort of projects · length = quarters to finish
grey: normalpink: credit-fundedgreen: saving-fundedred: abandoned

Try: play “genuine saving” and then “credit expansion” with the same 1.5-point drop in rates. Both start the same longer projects. Only the saving-funded ones can be finished; the credit-funded ones are abandoned together the quarter the new money stops (the “cluster of errors”). The natural rate is 5% before any change.

In this stripped-down model real consumption falls during the credit boom, because resources are pulled into projects (Hayek called this “forced saving”). In real booms money incomes and asset prices rise too, so the boom feels like prosperity while it lasts. Keynesian and monetarist economists accept that credit booms can end badly. They reject the conclusion that a bust should be left to run its course, and argue that it calls for monetary or fiscal support.

Money is not neutral: where the new money enters

mises-non-neutralitymises-cantillon-effect
The quantity theory says more money means higher prices in the long run. Mises's point is about the path. New money doesn't arrive in everyone's pocket at once. It enters at one point, and those who spend it first buy at old prices, while those it reaches last pay new prices on old incomes. Here five groups trade in a chain, each spending mostly on the next one's output. Pensioners in the middle live on a fixed nominal pension.
new money enters via
period 0 / 40 · price level +0.0%

Who spends the new money first

banks$118price +0%builders$118price +0%shops$118price +0%makers$118price +0%farmers$118price +0%pensioners$10

Circle size = cash held. Thick colored edge = spending above normal flowing to the next group. Each group sells its output to the others; pensioners (center) receive a fixed nominal pension.

Price of each group's output (1 = before the injection)

banksbuildersshopsmakersfarmers
11.21.41.6010203040periodlong-run: +20%

Cumulative change in real consumption vs. no new money

Banks & state contractors
+0.0
Builders
+0.0
Shopkeepers
+0.0
Manufacturers
+0.0
Farmers
+0.0
Pensioners (fixed income)
+0.0
New money
$120
+20% of $600
Real output
unchanged
no new goods were made
Net of all gains
0.0
a transfer, not a gain

Try: print money via bank credit and watch the price wave travel round the chain; the banks gain, those at the end of the chain and the pensioners lose. Then switch to “everyone in proportion”: prices jump at once and only fixed incomes lose. Where money enters decides who pays.

  • takeawayValue is subjective and decided at the margin. It is not the labor a good embodies or the class of good it belongs to, but what one more unit, or one less, means to someone.
  • takeawayMoney prices for the means of production are a calculating device. Without private ownership and exchange of capital goods, as under socialism, there is no way to know which way of producing wastes less.
  • takeawayInterfering with prices sets off chain reactions. A price cap moves the shortage upstream. Credit expansion fakes a savings signal and ends in a cluster of abandoned projects. New money redistributes wealth from late receivers to early ones.

Key concepts · 20

Ludwig von Mises · Carl Menger
  1. Subjective value

    A good's value is not a property of the good or of the labor in it, but the importance a person attaches to it for satisfying a want.

    Menger's break with the classical labor theory of value. Exchange happens because two people value the same goods in opposite order; costs matter only because the inputs have other valued uses.

    Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  2. Marginal utility

    The value of one unit of a stock equals the importance of the least urgent use that unit serves, since that is what you'd give up if you lost it.

    Menger's farmer with sacks of grain: lose one sack and he drops the parrots, not his bread. Value is decided for units at the margin, never for whole classes of goods.

    Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  3. Paradox of value (water and diamonds)

    Water is vital and cheap; diamonds are frivolous and dear. The marginal view resolves it: we never choose between all water and all diamonds, only between one more unit of each.

    Where water is plentiful one more liter matters little; stranded in a desert, a liter outranks any diamond. Prices follow the marginal unit.

    Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)

    Bottled water prices after hurricanesSmith's puzzle in The Wealth of Nations (1776)
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  4. Praxeology

    Mises's name for the general theory of human action, deduced from the axiom that humans act: they use means to pursue chosen ends.

    Mises held that the core laws of economics (e.g. that people prefer more of a good to less, that all action takes time) are known a priori rather than tested statistically. This method is the most disputed part of his work; most economists treat economic laws as empirical hypotheses.

    Human Action (1949)

  5. Time preference

    Other things equal, a person prefers a satisfaction sooner to the same satisfaction later.

    Mises treats it as a universal feature of action. It is why saving and waiting must be rewarded, and how far it falls decides how long the production processes a society can sustain.

    Human Action (1949), ch. 18

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  6. Originary interest

    The discount of future goods against present goods that follows from time preference; it exists even without money or loans.

    For Mises interest is not the price of money or the reward for productivity but the expression of time preference. Market loan rates are this originary rate plus risk and expected inflation.

    Human Action (1949), ch. 19

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  7. Roundabout production

    Producing tools and intermediate goods first, and consumer goods later, yields more output per hour but takes longer.

    Böhm-Bawerk's idea, taken up by Mises: lengthening the structure of production needs savings to live on while waiting. Lower time preference makes longer detours worthwhile.

    Böhm-Bawerk, Capital and Interest (1884–89); Human Action (1949)

    Crusoe's net vs. fishing by handBuilding a factory to make machines that make cars
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  8. Spontaneous origin of money

    Money arises without a decree: traders accept the most saleable good in indirect exchange, which makes it more saleable still, until it becomes the general medium of exchange.

    Menger's account shows how a key social institution can emerge from individual choices that no one designed. The state can later adopt or monopolize money, but it didn't invent it.

    Carl Menger, "On the Origins of Money" (1892)

    Cattle, salt, shells, tobacco in colonial VirginiaCigarettes in WWII POW camps
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  9. Saleability (marketability)

    How easily a good can be sold at a fair price at any time: helped by durability, divisibility, portability and wide demand.

    Barter needs a double coincidence of wants. Holding a more saleable good is a way around that, which is the first step toward money.

    Carl Menger, "On the Origins of Money" (1892)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  10. Regression theorem

    Today's demand for money depends on yesterday's purchasing power, which depends on the day before's, back to the last day the good was valued only for non-monetary uses.

    Mises's answer to the circularity of explaining money's value by its value. It implies every money must have started as a commodity with its own use value (a claim debated now that fiat currencies and Bitcoin exist).

    The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  11. Non-neutrality of money

    A change in the money supply doesn't raise all prices together; it changes relative prices and redistributes wealth along the way.

    Mises rejected the idea of money as a neutral veil. Even if the price level eventually rises in proportion, the path matters: who got the money first is richer and who got it last is poorer.

    The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  12. Cantillon effect

    New money benefits those who receive and spend it first, before prices rise, at the expense of those it reaches last and of people on fixed incomes.

    Named after Richard Cantillon (1755), whose analysis Mises built on. It is why the channel of monetary expansion (bank credit, government spending, transfers) decides who gains.

    Cantillon, Essai (1755); The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)

    Asset-price gains after quantitative easingSpanish price revolution from New World silver, 16th c.Pensioners in the 1970s inflation
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  13. Economic calculation problem

    Without market prices for the means of production, a socialist planner cannot compare the costs of alternative ways to produce, so cannot tell efficient from wasteful plans.

    Mises's 1920 argument: a railway can be built with countless mixes of steel, labor, timber and machines, and only money prices reduce them to one comparable unit. It launched the socialist calculation debate (Lange and Lerner replied that planners could simulate prices; Hayek extended Mises's case).

    "Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth" (1920); Socialism (1922)

    Soviet production by physical targets (tons of nails)War Communism in Russia 1918–21
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  14. Prices of capital goods

    The money prices of factories, machines and raw materials, which exist only where they can be privately owned and traded.

    Mises stressed that even a socialist economy with prices for consumer goods would lack these. Profit and loss from buying and selling inputs is what moves resources to their most valued uses.

    Socialism (1922)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  15. Austrian business cycle theory

    Credit expansion pushes interest rates below the rate that real savings would set, which starts more and longer projects than savings can complete; the boom ends in a bust when they are abandoned.

    Mises (1912) and Hayek (1931) located the cause of the cycle in money and credit rather than in markets themselves. Critics question why entrepreneurs repeatedly make the same mistake and argue the theory fits some booms (housing 2000s) better than others.

    The Theory of Money and Credit (1912); Human Action (1949), ch. 20

    US housing boom and bust 2001–09Roaring Twenties and 1929 crashJapan's 1980s asset bubble
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  16. Natural rate of interest

    The interest rate that would balance real saving and investment, set by people's time preference.

    Taken from Wicksell. When banks lend at a rate below it, investment exceeds the saving that could fund it, and the gap is bridged by new money rather than by real resources.

    Wicksell, Interest and Prices (1898); The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  17. Malinvestment and the cluster of errors

    Investment in the wrong lines and the wrong lengths of production, made in response to a false interest-rate signal, which shows up all at once when credit stops.

    Explains why many firms in capital-goods industries fail at the same time, rather than random individual failures. For Mises the bust is the painful correction, and further credit only postpones it.

    Human Action (1949), ch. 20

    Abandoned housing estates in Spain and Ireland after 2008Dot-com fiber overbuild 2000
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  18. Interventionism

    A 'middle way' of a market economy steered by government orders such as price controls, which Mises argued is unstable.

    Each control produces results its sponsors didn't want (shortages, diverted production), which invites a further control. The government must eventually either repeal or extend control to everything.

    A Critique of Interventionism (1929); Human Action (1949), ch. 27–30

    Nixon's wage and price controls 1971–74Venezuela price controls 2003–2019Diocletian's Edict on Prices (301 AD)
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  19. Price-control spiral (milk example)

    Mises's example: a cap on milk prices leads farmers to make butter and cheese, so those are capped; then herds shrink, so feed is capped, and so on up the chain.

    Shows how a single well-meant control pushes the shortage upstream into the inputs, ending with less milk than before the first control.

    Human Action (1949), ch. 30; Planning for Freedom (1952)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  20. Socialism of the German pattern

    A system in which private ownership remains in name but the state dictates prices, wages, output and who works where.

    Mises's term (from Zwangswirtschaft, 'compulsory economy') for where the interventionist spiral ends: the endpoint looks like the market economy on paper, but decisions are made by command.

    Socialism (1922); Omnipotent Government (1944)

    Hindenburg Programme, Germany 1916Nazi economic controls from 1936
    ↑ see it in the visualization