Ludwig von Mises
Subjective value: the farmer, the parrots and the diamond
menger-subjective-valuemenger-marginal-utilitymises-paradox-of-valueMenger's farmer: one sack per use, ranked by urgency
- 1Bread to stay alive100
- 2Bread to stay alive (rest of winter)92
- 3Enough food to stay strong and healthy75
- 4Seed for next year's crop60
- 5Extra seed to expand the field45
- 6Brew beer and spirits28
- 7Fatten livestock18
- 8Feed the pet parrots6
Sacks are interchangeable, so the farmer never sacrifices bread to keep the parrots fed. Losing any sack means giving up the least important use still served.
Try: drop to 2 sacks and watch the value of a single sack jump from 6 (parrots) to 92 (survival). Same grain, different margin.
The paradox of value: water vs diamonds, at the margin
Try: slide water down below ~11 liters (stranded in a desert) and a liter becomes worth more than a diamond. Prices follow the marginal unit, not the category.
Time preference: why Crusoe needs savings to build a boat
mises-time-preferencemises-originary-interestmises-roundabout-productionCrusoe's options: catch over one year (cumulative)
| method | days building | fish/day after | store needed | beats hand if premium < | value today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fish by hand | 0 | 3 | 0 | – | 644 |
| Make a spear | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 53% | 652 |
| Weave a net← chosen | 15 | 3.7 | 30 | 24% | 659 |
| Build a boat + nets | 45 | 4.2 | 90 ✗ | 10% | 645 |
Try: slide time preference down from 60% to 0% with a big store: the chosen method gets longer (hand → spear → net → boat). Then cut the store below 90 fish: even a patient Crusoe can't build the boat, because he must eat 2 fish a day while catching none. Patience without savings isn't enough.
The origin of money: nobody decreed it
menger-origin-of-moneymenger-saleabilitymises-regression-theorem48 traders, day 0
Ring = what the trader produces · inner dot = good held for re-trade · small dot = what he wants now. Thick ring = just got what he wanted.
How readily each good is accepted when offered (indirect-exchange market)
Try: press Play and watch one good's acceptance pull away from the rest. Nobody decrees it; each trader just takes what he expects to pass on easily. Then hit “New random traders” a few times: it is usually silver (durable, divisible), but sometimes salt wins. Switch to barter only to see the stalled market.
Economic calculation: the planner with no prices
mises-economic-calculationmises-capital-goods-pricesSix feasible ways to build the same 100 km railway (click rows to compare two)
| plan | labor worker-yrs $50k | steel kt $800k | timber kt $400k | cement kt $150k | energy GWh $120k | machinery machine-yrs $300k | money cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Concrete sleepers | 400 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 60 | $53.0M |
| B Timber sleepers chosen by profit & loss | 420 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 55 | $52.8M |
| C Hand-built, timber | 900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 15 | $63.4M |
| D Tunnel through ridge | 330 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 70 | 110 | $65.6M |
| E Detour round ridge | 520 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 50 | $62.5M |
| F Prefab modules | 280 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 85 | $58.0M |
Try: with prices on, switch conditions; the cheapest plan changes each time (B, A, D, F) because prices carry news of new scarcities. Then socialize capital goods and try every planner's rule: none tracks all four.
Interventionism: the milk price spiral
mises-interventionismmises-price-control-spiralmises-zwangswirtschaftThe spiral, step by step
- 0Free market
No controls. Milk sells at its market price.
Everyone willing to pay the market price gets milk; there are no queues.
- 1Cap the price of milk
- 2Cap butter and cheese too
- 3Cap the price of feed
- 4Direct labor, ration everything
The dairy chain (outline = wanted at the going price, fill = supplied)
Try: step through all four interventions and watch the shortage move upstream, from milk to feed to labor. Then repeal: every shortage vanishes at once. Note that milk supplied ends lower than it was before the first well-meant cap.
The Austrian business cycle: boom on credit, bust on reality
mises-business-cyclemises-natural-ratemises-malinvestmentReal resources: investment in progress, consumer goods, idle
Structure of production, quarter 0
Try: play “genuine saving” and then “credit expansion” with the same 1.5-point drop in rates. Both start the same longer projects. Only the saving-funded ones can be finished; the credit-funded ones are abandoned together the quarter the new money stops (the “cluster of errors”). The natural rate is 5% before any change.
Who spends the new money first
Circle size = cash held. Thick colored edge = spending above normal flowing to the next group. Each group sells its output to the others; pensioners (center) receive a fixed nominal pension.
Price of each group's output (1 = before the injection)
Cumulative change in real consumption vs. no new money
Try: print money via bank credit and watch the price wave travel round the chain; the banks gain, those at the end of the chain and the pensioners lose. Then switch to “everyone in proportion”: prices jump at once and only fixed incomes lose. Where money enters decides who pays.
- takeawayValue is subjective and decided at the margin. It is not the labor a good embodies or the class of good it belongs to, but what one more unit, or one less, means to someone.
- takeawayMoney prices for the means of production are a calculating device. Without private ownership and exchange of capital goods, as under socialism, there is no way to know which way of producing wastes less.
- takeawayInterfering with prices sets off chain reactions. A price cap moves the shortage upstream. Credit expansion fakes a savings signal and ends in a cluster of abandoned projects. New money redistributes wealth from late receivers to early ones.
Key concepts · 20
Ludwig von Mises · Carl Menger- Subjective value
A good's value is not a property of the good or of the labor in it, but the importance a person attaches to it for satisfying a want.
Menger's break with the classical labor theory of value. Exchange happens because two people value the same goods in opposite order; costs matter only because the inputs have other valued uses.
Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)
↑ see it in the visualization - Marginal utility
The value of one unit of a stock equals the importance of the least urgent use that unit serves, since that is what you'd give up if you lost it.
Menger's farmer with sacks of grain: lose one sack and he drops the parrots, not his bread. Value is decided for units at the margin, never for whole classes of goods.
Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)
↑ see it in the visualization - Paradox of value (water and diamonds)
Water is vital and cheap; diamonds are frivolous and dear. The marginal view resolves it: we never choose between all water and all diamonds, only between one more unit of each.
Where water is plentiful one more liter matters little; stranded in a desert, a liter outranks any diamond. Prices follow the marginal unit.
Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (1871)
Bottled water prices after hurricanesSmith's puzzle in The Wealth of Nations (1776)↑ see it in the visualization - Praxeology
Mises's name for the general theory of human action, deduced from the axiom that humans act: they use means to pursue chosen ends.
Mises held that the core laws of economics (e.g. that people prefer more of a good to less, that all action takes time) are known a priori rather than tested statistically. This method is the most disputed part of his work; most economists treat economic laws as empirical hypotheses.
Human Action (1949)
- Time preference
Other things equal, a person prefers a satisfaction sooner to the same satisfaction later.
Mises treats it as a universal feature of action. It is why saving and waiting must be rewarded, and how far it falls decides how long the production processes a society can sustain.
Human Action (1949), ch. 18
↑ see it in the visualization - Originary interest
The discount of future goods against present goods that follows from time preference; it exists even without money or loans.
For Mises interest is not the price of money or the reward for productivity but the expression of time preference. Market loan rates are this originary rate plus risk and expected inflation.
Human Action (1949), ch. 19
↑ see it in the visualization - Roundabout production
Producing tools and intermediate goods first, and consumer goods later, yields more output per hour but takes longer.
Böhm-Bawerk's idea, taken up by Mises: lengthening the structure of production needs savings to live on while waiting. Lower time preference makes longer detours worthwhile.
Böhm-Bawerk, Capital and Interest (1884–89); Human Action (1949)
Crusoe's net vs. fishing by handBuilding a factory to make machines that make cars↑ see it in the visualization - Spontaneous origin of money
Money arises without a decree: traders accept the most saleable good in indirect exchange, which makes it more saleable still, until it becomes the general medium of exchange.
Menger's account shows how a key social institution can emerge from individual choices that no one designed. The state can later adopt or monopolize money, but it didn't invent it.
Carl Menger, "On the Origins of Money" (1892)
Cattle, salt, shells, tobacco in colonial VirginiaCigarettes in WWII POW camps↑ see it in the visualization - Saleability (marketability)
How easily a good can be sold at a fair price at any time: helped by durability, divisibility, portability and wide demand.
Barter needs a double coincidence of wants. Holding a more saleable good is a way around that, which is the first step toward money.
Carl Menger, "On the Origins of Money" (1892)
↑ see it in the visualization - Regression theorem
Today's demand for money depends on yesterday's purchasing power, which depends on the day before's, back to the last day the good was valued only for non-monetary uses.
Mises's answer to the circularity of explaining money's value by its value. It implies every money must have started as a commodity with its own use value (a claim debated now that fiat currencies and Bitcoin exist).
The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)
↑ see it in the visualization - Non-neutrality of money
A change in the money supply doesn't raise all prices together; it changes relative prices and redistributes wealth along the way.
Mises rejected the idea of money as a neutral veil. Even if the price level eventually rises in proportion, the path matters: who got the money first is richer and who got it last is poorer.
The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)
↑ see it in the visualization - Cantillon effect
New money benefits those who receive and spend it first, before prices rise, at the expense of those it reaches last and of people on fixed incomes.
Named after Richard Cantillon (1755), whose analysis Mises built on. It is why the channel of monetary expansion (bank credit, government spending, transfers) decides who gains.
Cantillon, Essai (1755); The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)
Asset-price gains after quantitative easingSpanish price revolution from New World silver, 16th c.Pensioners in the 1970s inflation↑ see it in the visualization - Economic calculation problem
Without market prices for the means of production, a socialist planner cannot compare the costs of alternative ways to produce, so cannot tell efficient from wasteful plans.
Mises's 1920 argument: a railway can be built with countless mixes of steel, labor, timber and machines, and only money prices reduce them to one comparable unit. It launched the socialist calculation debate (Lange and Lerner replied that planners could simulate prices; Hayek extended Mises's case).
"Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth" (1920); Socialism (1922)
Soviet production by physical targets (tons of nails)War Communism in Russia 1918–21↑ see it in the visualization - Prices of capital goods
The money prices of factories, machines and raw materials, which exist only where they can be privately owned and traded.
Mises stressed that even a socialist economy with prices for consumer goods would lack these. Profit and loss from buying and selling inputs is what moves resources to their most valued uses.
Socialism (1922)
↑ see it in the visualization - Austrian business cycle theory
Credit expansion pushes interest rates below the rate that real savings would set, which starts more and longer projects than savings can complete; the boom ends in a bust when they are abandoned.
Mises (1912) and Hayek (1931) located the cause of the cycle in money and credit rather than in markets themselves. Critics question why entrepreneurs repeatedly make the same mistake and argue the theory fits some booms (housing 2000s) better than others.
The Theory of Money and Credit (1912); Human Action (1949), ch. 20
US housing boom and bust 2001–09Roaring Twenties and 1929 crashJapan's 1980s asset bubble↑ see it in the visualization - Natural rate of interest
The interest rate that would balance real saving and investment, set by people's time preference.
Taken from Wicksell. When banks lend at a rate below it, investment exceeds the saving that could fund it, and the gap is bridged by new money rather than by real resources.
Wicksell, Interest and Prices (1898); The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)
↑ see it in the visualization - Malinvestment and the cluster of errors
Investment in the wrong lines and the wrong lengths of production, made in response to a false interest-rate signal, which shows up all at once when credit stops.
Explains why many firms in capital-goods industries fail at the same time, rather than random individual failures. For Mises the bust is the painful correction, and further credit only postpones it.
Human Action (1949), ch. 20
Abandoned housing estates in Spain and Ireland after 2008Dot-com fiber overbuild 2000↑ see it in the visualization - Interventionism
A 'middle way' of a market economy steered by government orders such as price controls, which Mises argued is unstable.
Each control produces results its sponsors didn't want (shortages, diverted production), which invites a further control. The government must eventually either repeal or extend control to everything.
A Critique of Interventionism (1929); Human Action (1949), ch. 27–30
Nixon's wage and price controls 1971–74Venezuela price controls 2003–2019Diocletian's Edict on Prices (301 AD)↑ see it in the visualization - Price-control spiral (milk example)
Mises's example: a cap on milk prices leads farmers to make butter and cheese, so those are capped; then herds shrink, so feed is capped, and so on up the chain.
Shows how a single well-meant control pushes the shortage upstream into the inputs, ending with less milk than before the first control.
Human Action (1949), ch. 30; Planning for Freedom (1952)
↑ see it in the visualization - Socialism of the German pattern
A system in which private ownership remains in name but the state dictates prices, wages, output and who works where.
Mises's term (from Zwangswirtschaft, 'compulsory economy') for where the interventionist spiral ends: the endpoint looks like the market economy on paper, but decisions are made by command.
Socialism (1922); Omnipotent Government (1944)
Hindenburg Programme, Germany 1916Nazi economic controls from 1936↑ see it in the visualization