13 · Joseph Schumpeter · Israel Kirzner · Julian Simon · Deirdre McCloskey

The great enrichment

For almost all of history most people lived on a few dollars a day. Then, starting in northwest Europe around 1800, income per person rose thirty-fold and kept rising. This chapter is about the thinkers who tried to explain that dynamism. Joseph Schumpeter (Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942) saw an economy that grows by destroying its old industries. Israel Kirzner (Competition and Entrepreneurship, 1973) saw entrepreneurs noticing mistakes others had missed. Julian Simon (The Ultimate Resource, 1981) argued that people are a source of new resources, not only a drain on old ones. Deirdre McCloskey (the Bourgeois Era trilogy, 2006–2016) argued that the decisive change was in ideas: ordinary people gained the liberty and the dignity to try new things.
GDP per person over two thousand years, in today's prices. Before 1800 incomes mostly stayed flat: when productivity rose, population rose with it. After 1800 they rise steeply, first in Britain, then in the countries that copied its institutions and attitudes, and lately in most of the world.
scale
period

GDP per person, 2011 international dollars

WorldUnited KingdomChina
$0$20k$40k$60k500100015002000year1800
world, 1800
$1.2k
≈ $3.2 a day
vs. 1750
1.0×
UK, 1800
$3.0k
1.1× its 1750 level
rich countries, 2018
~30–50×
their 1750 income, before counting better goods

Try: on a linear scale over 2,000 years everything is a flat line near $1,000 (about $3 a day) until a wall around 1800. Switch to log scale, where equal heights mean equal growth rates: Britain pulls away first, Japan catches up in the 20th century, and China and India take off after about 1980. Values are rounded and stylised from the Maddison Project (2020); pre-1820 figures are rough.

Schumpeter's insight is that capitalism is never at rest. New industries arrive with better methods, workers leave the old ones (often painfully), and income rises because the old jobs disappear. Below, the same sequence of inventions hits two economies. One lets new industries in and old ones shrink. The other protects incumbents.
year 0 · 0 innovations so far

Where people work: free entry and exit

0%25%50%75%100%years → (red band at the bottom = between jobs)
jobs destroyed (cumulative)
0%
of the workforce, counting each displacement
jobs created (cumulative)
0%
between jobs now
4.0%
output per person
0.96×
free 1.0× vs protected 0.9×

Output per person (start = 1)

free entry and exitprotect incumbents
00.510100200300year

Try: press Play and watch farming shrink from almost everyone to almost no one while new industries rise and fall in waves. Every wave destroys jobs (the red band swells), which is the visible cost. Switch to "protect incumbents": unemployment stays flat and old industries survive longer. The cost is unseen until you look at the output chart.

Schumpeter's entrepreneur disrupts the market. Kirzner's entrepreneur coordinates it. Wherever prices are out of line, someone has made a mistake, and anyone who notices can profit by correcting it. In this model, local conditions keep pushing six towns' prices apart, and entrepreneurs who happen to notice the gaps pull them back together.

Six towns, one good: price in each

day 0
$0$5$10$15$20$10.33Antwerp$9.30Bruges$7.85Ghent$7.74Lille$7.68Liège$7.53Calais

Carting a unit between any two towns costs $1. A price gap larger than that is an unnoticed opportunity. Green arcs are entrepreneurs' trades: bought where cheap, sold where dear.

highest − lowest price
$2.80
profit left on the table
$4.5
sum of gaps above carrying cost
entrepreneurial profit
$0
≈ $0.00/day lately · 0 trades

Profit left on the table (unnoticed price gaps)

$0$1$2$3$40day

Try: set entrepreneurs to 0, press Play and watch the towns' prices drift apart. Then add three entrepreneurs at 30% alertness: the gaps close and stay small. Hit "Harvest fails in Ghent" and watch grain flow toward Ghent until its price is within a dollar of the others. Raise alertness and each shock is corrected faster, which also means each opportunity earns less.

The Simon–Ehrlich bet and the time price of resources

simon-ehrlich-betsimon-time-price
In 1980 the biologist Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, accepted Julian Simon's challenge: pick any raw materials, and bet that they would get scarcer, and therefore dearer, over ten years as the world added nearly 900 million people.
metal prices

The bet: $200 of each metal, Sept 1980 → Sept 1990

$200 stake in 1980-24%Copper-40%Chromium-16%Nickel-72%Tin-62%Tungsten
basket in 1990
$573
in 1980 dollars
metals that got cheaper
5 of 5
after inflation

Paul Ehrlich, who expected population growth to make resources scarcer, picked the metals. Julian Simon bet their real prices would fall. All five did, and in October 1990 Ehrlich mailed Simon a check for $576.07. Price changes shown are approximate.

Population vs. the time price of 50 commodities (1980 = 100)

world populationhours of work to buy them
0501001502001980199020002010
population, 2018
7.6bn
+71% since 1980
time price, 2018
25
an hour of work buys 4.0× as much

Try: flip to nominal prices. Copper and nickel cost more in 1990 dollars, and only after inflation did all five fall. Simon also got lucky with the decade: over many other ten-year windows (the 2000s commodity boom, for instance) Ehrlich would have won. That is why Simon's followers prefer the long-run time price, the hours of work needed to buy a resource. On that measure, endpoints from Pooley & Tupy's Superabundance (2022) with a stylised path between, commodities got about 75% cheaper while population grew 71%.

The ultimate resource

simon-ultimate-resource
Why did Simon expect to win? In the Malthusian picture, more people simply use up fixed resources faster. Simon added a feedback loop: scarcity raises the price, the price rewards people who find substitutes and better methods, and more people means more of them looking. Here are both, plus a third case where the feedback is cut by price controls.

Hours of work needed to buy one unit of the resource (year 2000 = 1)

Malthus: fixed know-howSimon, but prices cappedSimon: free prices + more minds
01234200020202040206020802100today
population, 2100
2.70×
year 2000 = 1
time price, Malthus
3.40
time price, prices capped
0.35
time price, Simon
0.13

Try: set ingenuity to 0, which is the Malthusian assumption. The resource gets scarcer and faster population growth makes it worse. Now raise ingenuity: in Simon's loop, faster population growth makes the green line fall faster, because more people means more problem-solvers and the rising price tells them where to look. Cap the price (yellow) and that signal is gone. This is a toy model of Simon's argument. Critics like Ehrlich reply that some things, such as fisheries, the climate and biodiversity, have no market price to send that signal.

I, Pencil

read-i-pencil
Leonard Read's 1958 essay has a pencil tell its own family tree: cedar from Oregon, graphite from Ceylon, wax from Mexico, rapeseed oil from the Dutch East Indies, and the miners, loggers, sailors and coffee growers behind each. Its claim is that no single person on earth knows how to make a pencil. Unfold the tree and see.
Click a node to unfold what it is made from. Click again to fold it.

I, Pencil: my family tree

PencilCedar casing +“Lead” core +Lacquer & paint +Brass ferrule +Eraser +Pencil factory +

Pencil

“Not a single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me.” A cedar casing, a graphite core, lacquer, a brass ferrule and an eraser.
inputs shown
6
25 more folded away, and each of those has its own tree
people involved (rough)
911
and this tree is drastically pruned
people who know how to make the whole pencil
0

Try: unfold the cedar, then the loggers, then their coffee. Every node is the visible end of another tree just as big. Nobody coordinates the whole: the Ceylon miner and the Oregon logger never meet, and each knows only a tiny part. Prices tell each of them what to do. As Read puts it, there is no "master mind".

The pencil is the knowledge problem from the Hayek chapter told as a story. Millions of people cooperate to make it, most of whom don't speak each other's language and some of whom would dislike each other. None of them is in charge, and none needs to know the whole.
McCloskey's answer to why the enrichment began in Holland and Britain is not coal, colonies or capital, which many places had. It is a change in how people talked. Trade and invention went from despised to honoured, and commoners gained the liberty to try new things. Combine that with Matt Ridley's point that new ideas are mostly crosses of old ones, and you get growth that speeds up.
ideas recombine

Ideas, and the ideas they were bred from

year 1600
1600170018001900

Each dot is an idea that someone acted on. Green ones are crosses of two earlier ideas (the faint lines lead to the parents).

people trying to innovate
1.6%
the rest follow tradition or seek office
ideas so far
6
income per person
1.0×
1600 = 1

Income per person (1600 = 1)

0×0.5×1×1600170018001900

Try: press Play. With merchants and inventors looked down on, almost nobody bothers and income stays flat for a century. Click "The Bourgeois Revaluation", McCloskey's name for the change in how the Dutch and then the British talked about trade and invention after about 1600–1700. The share of people who try jumps, and with recombination on, each idea makes the next easier: a hockey stick. Reset, turn recombination off and revalue again. Growth now stays linear.

This is a debated thesis. Economic historians such as Joel Mokyr also stress ideas (an "Industrial Enlightenment"), while others put the weight on institutions (North, Acemoglu), cheap coal and high wages (Allen), or the gains from empire and trade. McCloskey's reply is that these were present in many places that didn't take off.
  • takeawayThe Great Enrichment is the outstanding fact of economic history: a thirty-fold rise in a few lifetimes after millennia of stagnation. It is driven by innovation, not by accumulation alone.
  • takeawayInnovation is a process. Schumpeter's creative destruction replaces the old, Kirzner's alert entrepreneurs correct errors, and both work only where entry is free and prices can move. Protecting incumbents keeps the visible jobs and gives up the unseen future.
  • takeawayOn this view people are the ultimate resource. Where people are free and honoured for trying new things, more people means more ideas, and ideas combine. Resources get cheaper in hours of work, and no single mind needs to know how to make a pencil.

Key concepts · 17

Joseph Schumpeter · Israel Kirzner · Julian Simon · Deirdre McCloskey
  1. The hockey stick of income

    For most of history average income stayed around $2–3 a day; since about 1800 it has risen thirty-fold or more in the richest countries and about fifteen-fold worldwide.

    This is the central fact of economic history. Anything that claims to explain prosperity has to explain why it began so recently and spread where it did.

    Maddison Project Database (2020)

    Britain after 1800Japan after 1950China after 1978India after 1991
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  2. The Malthusian trap

    Before 1800, gains in productivity mostly turned into more people rather than higher incomes, so living standards stayed near subsistence.

    It explains the long flat handle of the hockey stick, and why escaping it required ideas to grow faster than population.

    Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  3. The Great Enrichment

    McCloskey's name for the rise in real income per person since 1800: roughly 3,000% in places like Britain, more once you count better goods.

    She argues it is too big to be explained by trade, exploitation, capital accumulation or institutions alone; it needs an explosion of innovation.

    Bourgeois Equality (2016)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  4. Creative destruction

    The process by which new products, methods and firms make old ones obsolete. Schumpeter called it “the essential fact about capitalism”.

    Growth doesn't come from more of the same but from replacing the old. The losses are concentrated and visible; the gains are spread out and arrive later.

    Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942)

    Horse carriages to automobilesKodak and digital photographyTelegraph to telephone
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  5. The Schumpeterian entrepreneur

    The innovator who carries out “new combinations”: a new good, method, market, source of supply or organisation.

    For Schumpeter the entrepreneur disrupts equilibrium; profit is the temporary reward until imitators compete it away.

    The Theory of Economic Development (1911); Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  6. Protecting incumbents

    Subsidies, licences and barriers that shield established firms and industries from new competitors.

    It preserves visible jobs today at the cost of unseen innovations that never arrive. Schumpeter also feared big bureaucratic firms and hostile intellectuals would slowly smother capitalism.

    Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942)

    Taxi medallions vs. ride-hailingSteel tariffsBank bailouts
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  7. Entrepreneurial alertness

    The ability to notice opportunities nobody has noticed yet, such as a good selling cheap here and dear there.

    Kirzner's entrepreneur needs no capital or special knowledge, only alertness. That is why the market process works even though no one has the full picture.

    Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  8. Profit as the reward for discovering error

    A pure profit opportunity exists because someone made a mistake: something is underpriced or overpriced.

    Acting on it corrects the error and moves prices toward coordination. Unlike Schumpeter's disruptor, Kirzner's entrepreneur pulls the market toward equilibrium.

    Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973); Discovery and the Capitalist Process (1985)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  9. Arbitrage

    Buying where a good is cheap and selling where it is dear, which closes the gap.

    It is the simplest case of entrepreneurship, and it shows how profit-seeking spreads information: the price gap disappears because someone acted on it.

    Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  10. The Simon–Ehrlich wager

    In 1980 Julian Simon bet Paul Ehrlich that five metals Ehrlich chose would be cheaper, after inflation, in 1990. All five were.

    It became the symbol of the debate over whether population growth exhausts resources. Over some other decades Ehrlich would have won, so the long-run trend matters more than one bet.

    Julian Simon & Paul Ehrlich, wager of 1980

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  11. Time price

    The hours of work needed to earn enough to buy something.

    It measures scarcity from a human point of view and grows more meaningful as wages rise. By this measure most commodities have become much cheaper as population grew.

    Pooley & Tupy, Superabundance (2022)

    Light: from hours to seconds of work per 1,000 lumen-hours50 commodities 1980–2018: ~75% cheaper
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  12. The ultimate resource

    Simon's claim that human ingenuity, not raw material, is the resource that matters, so more people means more problem-solvers.

    Scarcity raises prices, which rewards finding substitutes and better methods. The claim depends on free prices and institutions; critics note it fits less well for unpriced goods like clean air or fisheries.

    The Ultimate Resource (1981)

    Whale oil to keroseneCopper wire to fibre opticsThe Green Revolution
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  13. I, Pencil

    Leonard Read's 1958 essay, narrated by a pencil, showing that no single person knows how to make one.

    Millions cooperate without a master mind, each knowing only a sliver, coordinated by prices. It is Hayek's knowledge problem told as a story.

    Leonard Read, “I, Pencil” (1958)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  14. Ideas having sex

    Matt Ridley's image for innovation as the recombination of existing ideas, which exchange makes possible.

    The more ideas are in circulation and the more people trade, the more combinations are possible, which is why growth can accelerate rather than taper off.

    Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist (2010)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  15. Bourgeois dignity

    The social honour given to merchants, inventors and ordinary people trying out new things.

    McCloskey argues that what changed around 1700 was not capital or institutions so much as rhetoric: how people talked about the bourgeoisie. Words and ideas, not just material incentives, made innovation respectable.

    Bourgeois Dignity (2010)

    ↑ see it in the visualization
  16. The Bourgeois Revaluation

    The shift, first in Holland and then in Britain, from despising trade to admiring it, together with new liberty for ordinary people.

    It is her answer to ‘why then, why there?’: a new combination of liberty and dignity for commoners. Critics say she underweights coal, institutions and empire.

    Bourgeois Equality (2016)

    Dutch Republic, 1600sBritain, 1700s
    ↑ see it in the visualization
  17. Trade-tested betterment

    McCloskey's preferred name for ‘capitalism’: improvements that are tested by whether people voluntarily buy them.

    It puts the focus on innovation tested by consent in the marketplace, rather than on capital, which every society has always accumulated.

    Bourgeois Equality (2016)

    ↑ see it in the visualization